National Geology and Mining Service publishes new volcano ranking

After two years of intense work, the National Geology and Mining Service (Sernageomin) has published the New Specific Threat Ranking for Active Volcanoes in Chile 2019. The material was generated by professionals from the National Volcano Monitoring Network (RNVV) and categorizes the country’s active volcanoes.

The launch event was attended by Mining Minister Baldo Prokurica, Sernageomin National Director Alfonso Domeyko, Araucanía Regional Governor Víctor Manoli Nazal, Temuco Mayor Miguel Becker, Treasury Regional Secretary Edison Pacheco and Health Ministry Regional Secretary Katia Guzmán.

In addition to speaking about the importance of the data provided by the RNVV, Mining Minister Baldo Prokurica said that Sernageomin is doing important work as part of the country’s civil protection institutions, “contributing important information that brings us closer to communities and reinforces our role in efforts to prevent emergency situations. Chile is a volcanic country, and the government has worked arduously to establish a National Hazard and Disaster Policy that is based on our needs.”

Sernageomin National Director Alfonso Domeyko said “shifting from the current reactive logic to one focused on prevention is imperative for our society. We must address, manage and reduce the underlying risk factors because it is more efficient to proactively invest in risk management than it is to have to spend on post-disaster response and recovery.”

He added that this work is the result of a public policy that Chile has successfully developed “in which Sernageomin leads and is responsible for the Volcanic Hazard Risk Variable. After the May 2008 Chaitén volcano eruption, we designed the National Volcano Monitoring Network and a world-class observatory that provides 24/7 monitoring and early alerts when there is increased activity in any one of the country’s 45 most active volcanoes.”

Sernageomin National Geology Assistant Director Alejandro Cecioni said “volcano surveillance and assessment is one of the institution’s main focus areas. The entity stands out because of its high level of responsiveness as part of the Civil Protection System and the interdisciplinary research conducted by its professionals. Specifically, we are developing cooperation projects with other countries that are in the process of building networks like ours, as is the case of Guatemala.”

He also noted “our professionals interact and collaborate with the most advanced volcanology centers. In short, we are important actors in the area of volcanology in the region and around the world.”

Finally, Sernageomin National Volcano Monitoring Network Chief Álvaro Amigo said that “the volcano threat ranking is an objective tool that allows us to prioritize our efforts and resources based on the fact that our country has a high level of volcanic variety and recurrence.”

He added that “in order to build it, we synthesized the knowledge and experiences generated over the past decade along with other variables such as demographic growth, tourism and critical infrastructure.”

More information

While the 2019 ranking preserves most of the information gathered during previous years, it focuses on the application of other methods that have allowed experts to arrive at complex group consensuses, unify evaluation criteria and counteract the heterogeneity of the available information. It also emphasizes the technical arguments that support each point assigned and the recognition of medium- and long-term efforts that provide continuity and coherence to the information contained in the specific threat ranking of active volcanoes in Chile, allowing the ranking to be updated every five years. 

The categorization of the 92 volcanoes was completed using statistical analysis. Five natural breaks were recognized based on the specific threat values obtained for each volcano, and five categories were established (ranging from I to V). Furthermore, the experts analyzed the results and made exceptions based on geological knowledge, adding some volcanic systems to higher range categories due to their specific context. The paragraphs that follow describe each of the resulting categories.

Categorization

Type I volcanic systems: There are 14 volcanic systems in this category, 11 of which present a very high level of specific threat (435,446 to 238,709) with the exception of the Hudson and Láscar volcanoes.

Type II volcanic systems: This category includes 16 volcanic systems, 11 of which are characterized by a high level of specific threat that ranges from 202,811 to 153,564. Five exceptions were added: Tupungatito, Guallatiri, Laguna del Maule, Antillanca and Melimoyu.

Type III volcanic systems: This category covers 20 volcanic systems. Ten were found to present an intermediate level of specific threat and 10 present exceptions. The goal was to identify the systems that pose a greater threat, such as San Pedro, Reclus, Macá, Yanteles, Corcovado and Lautaro. These were added because they have danger levels of over 10 points. The Tacora, Easter Island and Olca-Paruma volcanic systems were added because they have exposure levels over 10 points. The experts decided to add the Irruputuncu Volcano to this category as well because it requires complex risk and exposure management due to its proximity to the Collahuasi mining site.

Type IV volcanic systems: There are 23 volcanic systems with a low level of specific threat.

Type V volcanic systems: There are 19 volcanic systems with a very low specific threat level, no proven evidence of Holocene activity or limited evidence of it but with fresh volcanic morphology or no Holocene activity but extended geothermal manifestations.

The results obtained on the updated 2019 ranking show that there are 92 volcanic systems in Chile. Previous versions had evaluated 91, 89 and 90 volcanic systems in 2013, 2016 and 2017, respectively. The differences between these numbers are mainly due to the fact that Antarctica was added to this year’s evaluation and new evidence has allowed for volcanic systems to be added or eliminated.

The 14 most dangerous volcanoes in Chile from most to least dangerous are Villarrica, Llaima, Calbuco, Nevados de Chillán, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Osorno, Mocho-Choshuenco, Antuco, Carrán-Los Venados, Cerro Azul-Quizapu, Chaitén, Lonquimay, Hudson and Láscar.